Covid-19, Compelled Pronouns, Vaselining your Thighs

The world finds itself faced with a formidable albeit invisible enemy. Many governments (ours included) have imposed far reaching constraints on movement as a first line defence to limit the spread of the virus. As a result, several people find themselves (blessed) cursed with free time. A lot of us are using this unearned ‘free’ time to catch up on the reading we know we need but often neglect, because, the rat race waits for no man. Even for those not inclined to use the time to read up, there is still a significant likelihood they will stumble on some reading material, presumably because sleeping, exercising and meme diving can hardly fill up the time.

What I am Reading

This post is an attempt to share some of the interesting insights I have found over this period that hopefully you will find useful

Covid-19

From an economic standpoint, anxiety over the malaise of the virus has generated interest in understanding its likely economic impact. Frozen supply/value chains, and subdued demand has stumped the world economy in ways that we were unable to reasonably anticipate as to act on them. The IMF Regional Outlook on Sub Saharan Africa paints a dangerously bleak picture with growth revised downwards from 5 % to negative growth somewhere around -2%. Fortunately, the study makes important analysis of individual economies with respect to impact on terms of trade, effect on vulnerable sectors, debt stability and crucially, their standing health care capacity. This allows for countries to locate where the weaknesses lie and structure a targeted economic recovery (or survival) response around these key areas.

Kenyan Economist David Ndii opines about the likely economic impact of Covid in Kenya and proposes viable responses such as setting up a lifeline fund. This is based on his view that Covid-19 presents more of a disaster shock as opposed to a systemic economic shock (structural). He expounds on this argument here. This considered opinion is instructive for other similar economies such as Uganda. In a follow up missive, Ndii laments the absence of quality leadership and firmly cautions against the false sense of security of the elite as the crisis unfolds. His suggestion is that this crisis will indeed reach the doorstep of the well-heeled.

Globally, the Economist newspaper and radio has asked very searching questions about the future of businesses post Covid in large sectors such as oil, aviation, leisure and luxury. In their Money Talks podcast, there seems to be broad consensus that job losses and economic output will diminish as the few survivors consolidate with weaker players being purchased or being thrown over the rails to save the precious little room aboard the global business Titanic. There are titbits of predictions on how this will change the way we do business, going forward.

In Uganda, some ‘thought leaders’ are clamoring for the defilement of retirement savings to help savers meet short term liquidity and or solvency requirements. In my experience, in the arena of public policy there is an interesting paradox i.e; disproportionately, BAD ideas are birthed by an earnest desire for GOOD deeds. Experts were contacted to explore this well-intentioned proposal, but it was exhaustively and convincingly debunked on the basis of fairly obvious demerits.

The geopolitical landscape is titillating with high drama, the stage has been set for another showdown between the United States of America and China over the virus, particularly its origins and possible early cover ups on its severity. Propaganda warfare is the chosen defense of a beleaguered Donald Trump quite visibly out of his depth and trying to salvage an increasingly unlikely second term in the White House. Two can play that game; and China has responded in equal measure with their well-oiled propaganda machinery. Fareed Zakaria, the veteran CNN political commentator argues that the accusations and counter accusations are a dangerous diversion from the collaboration so urgently required to effectively combat the virus. He also presents evidence (which is largely already in the public domain) that implicates Trump’s wishful dismissal of the seriousness of the Corona virus as being attributable for the tepid and subpar response mounted by the US.

(On the exposure of Donald Trump, I am reminded of a quote attributed to Warren Buffett “only when the tide goes out, will you discover who’s been swimming naked”)

Leadership in crisis is an important theme for the times in which we find ourselves. For this particular scenario, the scale and the stakes are in some ways, unprecedented. The Harvard Business Review Idea cast gives very vital and relevant refresher on the subject of leading through crisis. Crucially, they point out that the distinction between leading in a crisis and managing the situation is an important one as it is what will make all the difference.

Other Stuff

Pop Psychology

The Pop prefix is meant to be a slur by overpaid critics whose patterns of disbelief in non-conformist social psychology is not necessarily empirical but ironically is a confirmation of their biases, in itself a commonly observable psychological condition. It has been used on much beloved intellectual Malcolm Gladwell and I am still reeling.

Never mind that tangent.

I was introduced to a proper psychologist (taught at Harvard, has a PhD), Jordan Peterson who has become the momentary arch enemy of the Social-Justice-Warrior establishment. In a discussion with Joe Rogan, he explains his enlightened (albeit contractually dangerous) refusal to use compelled or preferred pronouns (e.g. they, them, ze ‘wormself’ as opposed to he or she) to refer to students at his University. This has been the most articulate and well-reasoned defense of what was formerly known as common sense and quite ironically, civil liberties. The thrust of his argument is anchored on evidence of the evolution of civilizations and the role of society, its importance and the constraints that have to be placed on the individual to allow society to function optimally for all its participants. He carefully deconstructs the illogical suppositions made by the veiled tyrants of the LEFT. Peterson exposes their shallow ideology. Definitely a thread you want to pull on.

Peterson’s war of attrition is similar to that of some like-minded individuals who are studying a curious paradigm shift at American Universities, the bulk of which they summarized in this eloquent essay titled the Coddling of the American Mind. The University as the arena where ideas converge to duel, where conviction and utopias are shattered, is no more. Acceptance and agreeableness have overtaken the supremacy of truth & science which was previously hard won consensus earned through no-holds barred intellectual combat. Are millennials really the egocentric cry-babies everyone thinks we are?

This is important because over time, it  has implications for the wider world which takes its cues from their credentialed North American cultural imperialists.

Running

Running is spiritual and I won’t brook further debate on the subject. But for clarity, here are some reasons to elaborate this view. And be sure not to forget Bikozulu’s advice, about just how important it is to apply Vaseline between your thighs for a long run. Mostly, it is just getting out the door that is impossible to endure. The rest, sheer joy.

Books for the week

I am learning that it is not in my own interest nor is it viable to want and or attempt to read all my books at a go. This week, I am re-reading George Friedman’s The Next 100 years because he really seems to have a read on the future. I am also starting on a book called Range by David Epstein. He is making a case for being a Generalist in the world that seems to be galloping in the opposite direction towards super specialization. I am eager to hear his argument.

So tell me then, what are YOU reading?