MBABAZI SAGA

John Patrick Amama Mbabazi

I have watched with chagrin and amusement the recent turf war between President YOWERI Kaguta Museveni and Former Premier Amama Mbabazi. The latter allegedly pinched by his former boss, for what is in NRM considered the original sin, “harboring Presidential ambitions”, a crime for which there is no route back to the power centre once […]

John Patrick Amama Mbabazi
The Rt Hon John Patrick Amama Mbabazi

I have watched with chagrin and amusement the recent turf war between President YOWERI Kaguta Museveni and Former Premier Amama Mbabazi. The latter allegedly pinched by his former boss, for what is in NRM considered the original sin, “harboring Presidential ambitions”, a crime for which there is no route back to the power centre once exposed and ultimately frozen out.

Examples are not limited here , Mike Mukula , Gilbert Bukenya are some who incurred the fearsome presidential wrath for entertaining publicized ambitions of being pretenders to the throne.

Aside from the predictable outcomes of Mbabazi’s botched project, the conclusions from the mortal combat between the nation’s top most political leaders have left me confounded. A large portion of the citizenry has since elected to peg their hopes to the former premier as a viable alternative to the long term presidency of President Museveni. There is a naïve expectation that Amama is building a mass assault on the highest office in the land and in the process bringing M7’s push for lifetime presidency to a grinding halt.

My view is that this ‘power struggle’ is merely a comical interlude before the continuation of rule by quasi dictatorship with dynastic overtones. It is foolhardy for anyone to assume that an out of favor former regime hatchet-man is the best option for change to be realized. The appearance of Amama as a shrewd political operator and ruthless pragmatist is not without merit. Evidence of that abounds in previous political dealings. As such, my expectation is that the former premier is not willing (nor is he able) to jeopardize his immense family wealth and comfortable standing for the primary purpose of securing the highest office in the land.

The ludicrous assessment of Amama’s silence as suggestion of an undercurrent of confidence in his ability to supplant the President from his firm eminence is misguided. What I see is a beleaguered man struggling to save his own skin and taking care not to ruffle the president’s feathers any further. His ejection from the role of Secretary General of the ruling party though being cloaked as a sabbatical type arrangement is the beginning of a cocktail of negative consequences that are going to torment the ambitious former Premier. His recent pre-emptive request to stay the inevitable use of extra judicial mechanisms to further tarnish and discredit him by writing to the DPP as well as the police give credence to the view that Amama is merely fighting to first of all just ensure his own survival.

That explains my skepticism of the idea that he can somehow simultaneously shoulder the unenviable task of contesting against the incumbent. It smacks of optimism straddling unrealistic. The main take-away is that this is representative of the mass despair of a nation clamoring for change however miniscule the odds, or however tainted the custodian of those hopes. The rally coalescing behind Mbabazi have no hope of gaining traction and run the risk of being the proverbial drowning men clutching at straws. I could be wrong.